Japan’s New Disaster Prevention Plan Targets Nankai Trough Earthquake Risks
The Japanese government has announced a bold new disaster prevention plan to tackle the devastating potential of a Nankai Trough megathrust earthquake. Aiming to slash the estimated death toll by 80% within the next 10 years, this strategy addresses a worst-case scenario that could claim up to 298,000 lives.
A Sobering Forecast for the Nankai Trough Earthquake
In March, officials released alarming projections about the impact of a Nankai Trough megathrust earthquake. If this massive quake triggers widespread shaking and towering tsunamis, it could result in 298,000 deaths and leave 2.35 million buildings completely destroyed or burned to the ground. These figures highlight the urgent need for enhanced earthquake preparedness across Japan.
Ambitious Goals Set at the Central Disaster Prevention Council
During today’s Central Disaster Prevention Council meeting, the government finalized the “Basic Plan for Promoting Disaster Prevention Measures.” Based on the latest damage estimates, the plan outlines clear “disaster reduction goals”: reducing deaths by about 80% and cutting the number of completely destroyed or burned buildings by roughly 50% over the next decade. This reflects Japan’s commitment to safeguarding its people and infrastructure.
Lessons from the Past: The 2014 Plan’s Shortfall
A previous disaster prevention plan, launched in 2014, also targeted an 80% reduction in deaths. However, despite a decade of efforts, the reduction achieved was only 20%. The government acknowledges that some measures didn’t progress as hoped, prompting a renewed approach to meet these critical targets.
A Stronger Strategy with Measurable Targets
Unwilling to lower its ambitions, the government is sticking to its goals of an 80% reduction in deaths and a 50% cut in destroyed buildings. The new plan introduces specific numerical targets for each measure and includes annual progress checks to stay on track. This data-driven approach aims to bring Japan closer to its disaster reduction objectives.
From 48 to 205 Goals: A Comprehensive Upgrade
The plan ramps up the number of specific targets from 48 in 2014 to an impressive 205. These cover everything from earthquake and tsunami preparedness to infrastructure reinforcement. The focus is on two key areas: “protecting lives” by preventing immediate deaths and “sustaining lives” by supporting survivors post-disaster.
“Protecting Lives”: Earthquake-Proof Homes and Fire Safety
To save lives directly, the plan prioritizes eliminating housing with inadequate seismic resistance by 2035. It also promotes the use of seismic circuit breakers—devices that cut power during quakes to prevent fires—enhancing safety in homes across the country.
Tsunami Defense: Stronger Coastal Levees
To counter tsunamis and storm surges, Japan aims to boost the percentage of coastal levees meeting required height standards from 42% in 2023 to 50% by 2030. This upgrade is a vital step in protecting coastal communities from the Nankai Trough’s potential wrath.
“Sustaining Lives”: Better Shelters and Resilient Lifelines
For survivors, the plan emphasizes reducing disaster-related deaths by improving evacuation shelters. By 2030, all municipalities should meet the international “Sphere Standards” for humanitarian response, ensuring shelters have essentials like beds and toilets. Additionally, the earthquake resistance of water and sewage systems serving key facilities, such as shelters, will rise from 12% in 2023 to 32% by 2030, strengthening critical lifelines.
A Collaborative Push for Immediate Action
Following today’s decision, the government is teaming up with local authorities and public entities to fast-track actionable measures. This united effort underscores Japan’s determination to bolster disaster prevention and protect its population from future earthquakes.
